MLB Betting Picks

Get expert MLB betting picks and analysis for every game. Our baseball analysts use advanced metrics, pitching matchups, weather conditions, and more to provide you with the most accurate predictions.

MLB Picks

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MLB Advanced Stats

Important MLB Betting Factors

Pitching Matchups

Starting pitchers are the most important factor in MLB betting. We analyze:

  • ERA, FIP, xFIP
  • WHIP and K/BB ratios
  • Matchup history vs. opposing lineup
  • Home/Away and Day/Night splits
  • Recent form and pitch velocity trends

Bullpen Analysis

Bullpen strength is often overlooked but critical:

  • Bullpen ERA and WHIP
  • Recent workload and available arms
  • High-leverage relievers' availability
  • Bullpen vs. specific lineup performance

Ballpark Factors

Park dimensions greatly impact scoring:

  • Park Factor ratings for runs/HRs
  • Weather conditions (wind direction/speed)
  • Temperature effects on ball flight
  • Dome vs. open-air stadiums

Advanced Metrics

We use modern analytics to find edges:

  • wOBA and wRC+ for offensive evaluation
  • Defensive Runs Saved (DRS)
  • Hard Hit % and Barrel %
  • Expected stats (xBA, xSLG)
  • Platoon advantages vs LHP/RHP

Current MLB Betting Trends

  • Home underdogs are 115-98 (54%) on the moneyline this season
  • The under is 62-42-3 (59.6%) in games with totals of 9+ runs in pitcher-friendly parks
  • Teams favored by -150 or more are winning at a 64% rate but are only profitable in 52% of games
  • The F5 (First 5 Innings) under is hitting at 57% when both starting pitchers have an ERA under 3.50
  • Road teams coming off a loss of 5+ runs are covering the run line at a 60.2% rate in their next game

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